GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s choppy decline from 186.75 extended lower last week even though downside momentum has been week. Further fall is expected this week as long as 184.39 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 182.44) will argue that it’s already in a larger scale correction and target 176.29 support next. On the upside, break of 184.39 resistance will argue that the pull back from 186.75 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 185.76 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 176.29 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress. Break of 186.75 will target 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 176.29 will confirm medium term topping, and turn outlook neutral for lengthier and deeper consolidations.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress but started lose upside momentum as seen in W MACD. Further rise will remain in favor, though, as long as 176.29 support holds, to retest 195.86 (2015 high).

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