GBP/JPY retreated to 189.02 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Risk is mildly on the downside as long as 191.29 resistance holds. Firm break of 188.90 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 191.29 at 186.33, as a correction to rise from 178.32. Nevertheless, decisive break of 191.29 will resume larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).
In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rally will remain in favor as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds. Break of 195.86 (2015 high) is possible. But strong resistance could be seen from 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 at 199.80 to limit upside, at least on first attempt.
