Sideway trading continued in GBP/JPY above 187.04 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 193.09 will resume the rebound from 187.04 to 194.73 resistance, and then 198.94. On the downside, firm break of 187.04 will extend the fall from 199.79 towards 180.00 support. Overall, corrective pattern from 180.00 might still be extending.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 174.62).
