GBP/JPY’s pullback from 205.30 extended lower last week but failed to sustained below 201.24 resistance turned support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rally is mildly in favor. On the upside, above 203.41 resistance will bring retest of 205.30 high. However, sustained break of 201.24 will bring deeper fall to 197.47 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 will dampen this view and could extend the corrective pattern with another fall.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
