GBP/JPY’s rebound last week suggests that pullback from 205.30 has completed at 200.67 already. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside for retesting 205.30 first. Firm break there will resume larger rise to 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 199.96 from 197.47 at 207.11. However, break of 201.89 will turn bias to the downside to extend the pattern from 205.30 with another falling leg.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
