GBP/JPY roses strongly to 204.04 last week but failed to break through 204.22 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 204.22 will suggest that larger rally from 184.53 is ready to resume through 205.03. However, break of 202.31 minor support will turn bias to the downside towards 199.04, to extend the corrective pattern from 205.30 with another falling leg.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
