GBP/JPY edged higher to 207.34 but quickly retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, but further rise is expected as long as 205.17 support holds. Break of 207.34 will resume the rally from 184.35 and target 208.09 high. However, break of 205.17 support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback, possibly to 55 D EMA (now at 203.25).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 199.04 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
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