GBP/JPY edged lower to 207.20 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 207.20 will extend the corrective fall from 214.98 to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. Nevertheless, firm break of 209.68 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.
In the bigger picture, considering the break of 55 D EMA (now at 209.96), a medium term top could be formed at 214.98. Deeper correction would be seen, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. On the upside, break of 214.98 will resume larger up trend from from 123.94 (2020 low), and target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 184.02) holds.
