GBP/JPY edged lower to 206.85 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While another fall cannot be ruled out, strong support should be seen from 206.10 fibonacci level to bring rebound. Break of 211.25 resistance should indicate short term bottoming. However, decisive break of 206.10 will carry larger bearish implications.
In the bigger picture, price action from 219.56 is seen as correcting the up trend from 184.35 (2025 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10. Strong support is expected from there to bring rebound. However, decisive break will raise the chance of larger trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 197.80.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 191.08) holds.
