GBP/USD edged lower to 1.3048 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3314 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 1.3048 will resume the fall from 1.4376 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.2875 first. However, break of 1.3314 will bring stronger rebound back to 1.3471 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3471 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is viewed as a corrective move, no change in this view. Rejection from 55 month EMA argues that it might be completed already. Larger down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) could extend to a new low. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.4376 resistance holds.
