Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2813; (P) 1.2872; (R1) 1.2926; More….

A temporary top is in place at 1.2930 with today’s retreat. Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first. Further rise is in favor with 1.2709 minor support intact. Above 1.2930 will target 1.3174 resistance, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3149. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.2709 minor support will argue that corrective rebound from 1.2391 is completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2391 low.

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In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view. However, sustained break of 1.3174 will invalidate this case and turn outlook bullish.


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