GBP/USD edged higher to 1.4232 last week but couldn’t break through 1.4240 high yet. Initial bias is neutral this week first considering loss of upside momentum, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.4098 support holds. Decisive break of 1.4240 will resume larger up trend for 1.4376 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.4098 support will delay the bullish case. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.4240 with another falling leg.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 1.1409 should still continue. Decisive break of 1.4376 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) at 1.5134. However, firm break of 1.3482 support will argue that the rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 1.2675 support and below.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.
