GBP/USD’s strong rally last week now suggests that medium term rise from 1.1946 is still in progress. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.3267 resistance first. Break will confirm this case and target 1.3444 key resistance next. But again, price actions from 1.1946 are still seen as a corrective pattern. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3444 to limit upside to bring larger down trend reversal eventually. On the downside, below 1.3114 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2773 support will be the first sign that such down trend is resuming.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is still in progress. On resumption, such decline would extend deeper to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. However, firm break of 1.3444 should confirm reversal and turn outlook bullish.

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