GBP/USD’s decline last week argues that corrective rebound from 1.1759 has completed at 1.2292 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.1759 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 1.1409 long term support. On the upside, above 1.1924 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2292 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2292 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2292 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2859).
In the longer term picture, rebound from 1.1409 long term bottom should have completed at 1.4248 already, well ahead of 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. The development argues that price actions from 1.1409 was a corrective pattern only. That is, long term bearishness is retained for resuming the down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) at a later stage.
