GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.0351 resumed last week and hit 1.1644 before retreating. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, but further rise is expected as long as 1.1256 minor support holds. Break of 1.1644 will resume rise form 1.0351 to 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.0922 at 1.2065. However, break of 1.1256 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0922 support and below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is part of the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1759 support turned resistance holds. Parity would be the next target on resumption. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.1759 will confirm medium term bottoming, and open up stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2392).

In the longer term picture, as long as 1.4248 resistance holds (2021 high), there is no confirmation of long term bottoming yet. That is, down trend from 2.1161 (2007) could still resume for another low through 1.0351.

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