GBP/USD edged lower to 1.1960 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, but further decline is in favor after rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA. Break of 1.1960 will resume the fall from 1.2446, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.2445, to 1.1840 support, and possibly below. on the upside, though, break of 1.2192 will resume the rise from 1.1960 to retest 1.2445/6.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.4248.
In the longer term picture, as long as 1.4248 resistance holds (2021 high), long term outlook will remain neutral at best. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007) could still resume for another low through 1.0351 at a later stage.
