GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD dropped to 1.2390 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first, but further fall is expected as long as 1.2545 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.2392) should confirm that it’s already in correction to whole up trend form 1.0351. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1801 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2678 at 1.1789). On the upside, however, break of 1.2545 will bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.2678 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1801 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759 will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.1801 will indicate rejection by 1.2759, and bring deeper decline, even as a correction.

In the long term picture, while the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has been strong, there is no clear indicate of long term trend reversal yet. As long as 1.4248 resistance holds (2021 high), long term outlook will remain neutral at best.

Featured Analysis

Learn Forex Trading