GBP/USD’s strong break of 1.2678 resistance last week confirms resumption of whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Initial bias stays on the upside this week for further rally. Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 1.1801 to 1.2678 from 1.2306 at 1.2848 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.3183 next. On the downside, below 1.2697 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 1.2327) is a medium term bullish sign. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2305 support holds. Rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further to retest 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).
In the long term picture, immediate focus is on 55 M EMA (now at 1.2919). Sustained trading above there add to the case of long term bullish reversal. Nevertheless, break of 1.4248 resistance (2021 high), and 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.0351 at 1.4480 is needed to confirm. Otherwise, long term outlook is just neutral at best.
