GBP/USD’s edged lower to 1.2108 last week but rebounded strongly since then. The development suggests that consolidation pattern from 1.1946 is extending with another rising leg. And the larger down trend is not ready to resume yet.
Initial bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside this week for 1.2568 resistance. Break will target 1.2705/74 resistance zone next. At this point, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.2705/2774 to limit upside to extend the sideway pattern. Break of 1.2240 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2108 support. Though, sustained break of 1.2774 will extend the rise towards 1.3444 key resistance level.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. Current momentum suggests that the down trend will go deeper than originally expected to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532.