GBP/USD dipped to 1.2099 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2486 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.2099 will resume the fall from 1.3433 to 100% projection of 1.3433 to 1.2486 from 1.2810 at 1.1863.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433, and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move.
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
