GBP/USD spiked higher to 1.3725 last week but reversed from there. The development suggests that rebound from 1.3140 has completed, and corrective pattern from 1.3787 high is already in the third leg. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.3332 support first. Break there will bring deeper fall to 1.3140. On the upside, though, above 1.3561 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress, and would target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. However, with 1.4248 resistance (2021 high) intact, this rally is more likely a corrective move. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3146) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.
In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.
