USD/CAD’s decline from 1.4667 extended further to 1.3191 last week. A temporary low was formed there and initial bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen but upside should be limited by 1.3398 resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 1.3191 will target long term fibonacci level at 1.3056. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3398 should indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.
In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3715 resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3715 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.
In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.
