USD/CAD’s sharp fall last week and break of 1.3081 support argues that consolidation pattern from 1.2994 might have completed at 1.3389 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.2994 first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. On the upside, however, break of 1.3178 resistance will mix up the near term outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA is keeping outlook bearish. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3715 resistance will argue that this falling leg has completed and turn focus back to 1.4667/89 resistance zone.
In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.
