Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2709; (P) 1.2770; (R1) 1.2890; More…
USD/CAD’s retreat from 1.2947 extends lower today but intraday bias remains neutral first. We’d expect downside to be contained by 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2660) to bring rebound. Break of 1.2947 will resume the rise from 1.2005 to 1.3022 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 4 hour 55 EMA will bring deeper fall back to 1.2421 support.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.
