USD/CAD reversed after rising to 1.2891 last week, but downside is contained by 1.2635 minor support so far. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2635 will target 1.2492 support and possibly below, to extend the pattern from 1.2947. On the upside, above 1.2891 will target a test on 1.2947 high. Overall, with 1.2421 support intact, rise from 1.2005 should still be in progress for another rise through 1.2947 at a later stage.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.
In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, rejection by 55 month EMA, follow by firm break of 1.2061 support, will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend.