USD/CAD edged lower to 1.2766 last week but rebounded strongly since then. The development argues that pull back from 1.3222 has completed, and revived near term bullishness. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for retesting 1.3222 next. On the downside, however, break of 1.2817 minor support will suggest that the fall from 1.3222 is resuming through 1.2766.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.
