USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3222 resumed by breaking through 1.2766 last week. Downside momentum is a bit unconvincing. But further decline is expected this week as long as 1.2837 minor resistance holds. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.3222 to 1.2766 from 1.2984 at 1.2702 will target 100% projection at 1.2528, which is close to 1.2516 key support. Nevertheless, above 1.2837 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2984 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.