USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD’s steep decline last week indicates short term topping at 1.3666. More importantly, the downside acceleration now argues that fall from 1.3860 is the third leg of the pattern from 1.3976. Initial bias is no won the downside this week first 1.3299 support first. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.3976 to 1.3224 from 1.3860 at 1.3395 next. On the upside, though, above 1.3477 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3312) holds, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below the EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. Deeper should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758 next.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3025) holds.

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