USD/CAD’s strong break of 1.3386 resistance last week affirms the case that correction from 1.3976 has completed with three waves down to 1.3091. But as a temporary top was formed, initial bias remains neutral for consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.3318 to bring rebound. Break of 1.3501 will resume the rise from 1.3091 to 1.3653 resistance next. Break there will further confirm this case and target 1.3976 high.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective fall only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976 towards 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3044) holds.
