USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3091 continued last week and hit as high as 1.3574. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.3653 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that correction from 1.3976 has completed, a target a test on this high. On the downside, below 1.3495 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective fall only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3044) holds.
