USD/CAD’s late rebound last week suggests that pull back from 1.3693 has completed at 1.3378. Initial bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.3693 high next. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside on first attempt. On the downside, below 1.3415 support will resume the fall from 1.3693 through 1.3378 to 61.8% retracement of 1.3091 to 1.3693 at 1.3321.
In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). The question is whether it has completed with three waves down to 1.3091, or still extending. But even in case of extension, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3796 at 1.2991. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.3693 should validate the former case, and target 1.3976 and above.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3082) holds.
