USD/CAD’s rise from 1.3091 resumed last week and surged to as high as 1.3879. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.3976 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend to 1.4064 projection level. On the downside, below 1.3794 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.3091. Decisive break of 1.3976 high will confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4064. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3568 support holds.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3100) holds.
