USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD reversed after edging higher to 1.4541 last week but subsequent decline was contained at 1.4238. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.4791 should still be extending. Below 1.3248 will target 1.4150 support and possibly below. Meanwhile, break of 1.4541 will bring stronger rise back to retest 1.4791.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is in progress and possibly resuming. Next target is 61.8% projections of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2005 at 1.5270. While rejection by 1.4689 will delay the bullish case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 M EMA (1.3430) holds.

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