Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2771; (P) 1.2797; (R1) 1.2842; More….
USD/CAD’s strong rally and break of 1.2836 resistance suggests that corrective pattern from 1.2916 has completed at 1.2672 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.2916 first. Break will resume whole rise from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 1.2753 will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 1.2916 with another fall. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.2598 resistance turned support and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.
