USD/CAD dived to 1.3574 last week but rebounded strongly from there. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3773 resistance holds. Break of 1.3574 will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.3538 has completed. And larger fall from 1.4791 is ready to resume through 1.3538. However, firm break of 1.3773 will argue that it’s now correcting the whole fall from 1.4791 and target 1.4014 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.
In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3498) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.
