USD/CAD retreated after rising to 1.3868 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is expected with 1.3729 support intact. Rise from 1.3549 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.3480. Above 1.3868 will target 1.3965 resistance next. Break of 1.3729 will suggest that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.
In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3588) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.
