USD/CAD’s fall from 1.4298 accelerated lower today and it’s now pressing 38.2% retracement of 1.3730 to 1.4298 at 1.4081. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3947 next. On the upside, above 1.4132 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, focus remains on 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Decisive break there will add to the case that rise from 1.3480 is reversing the whole fall from 1.4791 (2025 high). Further rally should then be seen back to this high. However, rejection by 1.4290, followed by sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3925) will revive medium term bearishness.
