Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2482; (P) 1.2528; (R1) 1.2557; More….
USD/CAD drops to as low as 1.2499 so. It’s losing some downside momentum on oversold condition in 4 hour RSI. But intraday bias stays on the downside as long as 1.2566 minor resistance holds. Current fall from 1.2919 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.2919 at 1.2389 or possibly below. On the upside, above 1.2566 will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, we’re still favoring the case that USD/CAD has defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. With that in mind, fall from 1.2919 is viewed as a correction. Hence, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2061 low. In the long run, USD/CAD should have another medium term rise to take on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065.
