Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9790; (P) 0.9812; (R1) 0.9837; More…
USD/CHF’s correction from 1.0128 extends to as low as 0.9778 so far today. At this point, we’d expect downside to be contained by 0.9765/8 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9765, 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0128 at 0.9768) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9834 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9963 resistance. Break will indicate completion of the correction and target 1.0128 high. However, sustained break of 0.9765/8 will bring deeper fall back to 0.9541 support next.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.0128 was slightly deeper than expected, the structure suggests it’s a corrective move. As long as 0.9765/8 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9765, 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0128 at 0.9768) holds, we’d expect up trend from 0.9541 and 0.9186 to resume later through 1.0128. However firm break of 0.9765/8 will argue that the trend has reversed. Further break of 0.9541 support will confirm this bearish scenario and bring deeper fall back to 0.9186 low.
