USD/CHF’s strong rebound last week confirmed short term bottoming at 0.9695. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside for 1.0014 resistance. Upside could be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.0237 to 0.9695 at 1.0030. On the downside, below 0.9842 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9695 low instead. However, sustained break of 1.0030 will pave the way back to retest 1.0237 high.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) has completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. However, sustained break of 1.0014 will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.0237 high.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
