USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9367 extended lower last week. The development now suggest that rebound form 0.8925 has completed with three waves up to 0.9367, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9017 support first. Break will target 0.8925 next. On the upside, however, break of 0.9251 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9367 instead.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not completed yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We’d pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
