USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9439 last week but retreated again. Initial bias stays neutral first. While further rise cannot be ruled out, strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 to complete the rebound from 0.9058. Break of 0.9340 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. However, decisive break of 0.9474 will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9730.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0146 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern. As long as 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 holds, another fall is in favor through 0.9058. However, sustained trading above 0.9474 will indicate that the medium term trend has reversed, and open up further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.9730 and above.
In the long term picture, long term sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high) is extending. Overall, range trading should continue until further development.
