USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s pull back from 0.8874 was deeper than expected, but it recovered quickly after hitting 0.8743. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.8874 will resume the rise from 0.8551. Next target is 0.9146 cluster resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.8743 minor support will argue that rebound from 0.8551 has completed, and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.8551 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the downtrend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rally would be seen to 0.9146 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 at 0.9160). Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.8317 will bring retest of 0.7065 low.

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