USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9243 continued to as low as 0.8675 last week, and there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 161.8% projection of 0.9243 to 0.8886 from 0.9111 at 0.8533, which is close to 0.8551 low. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, strong support could be seen there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 0.8769 minor resistance should indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8551 are currently seen as part of a corrective pattern to the decline from 1.0146 (2022 high). Fall from 0.9243 is seen as the second leg for now. Deeper decline could be seen to 0.8551 low but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.8886 support turned resistance holds.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best.

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