USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF edged higher to 0.8891 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor as long as 0.8741 support holds. Break of 0.8891 will resume the whole rebound from 0.8332 towards 0.9243 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.8741 support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 0.8332, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD, just ahead of 0.8317 long term fibonacci support. It’s still early to decide if the larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high) is reversing. But further rise should be seen to 0.9243 resistance even as a correction.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 (2016 high) will start the third leg as a medium term rally. But there will be no sign of long term reversal until firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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