USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9049 continued last week despite interim recovery. As noted before, rebound from 8825 should have completed after rejection by channel resistance. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.9000 resistance holds, to 0.8825 low. Break of 0.8825 will target 50% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8778 next. However, break of 0.9000 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9049 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, with 0.9243 resistance intact, medium term outlook in USD/CHF is neutral at best. For now, more sideway trading is likely between 0.8332/9243. However, firm break of 0.9243 will indicate larger bullish trend reversal.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 (2016 high) will start the third leg as a medium term rally. But there will be no sign of long term reversal until firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.
