USD/CHF’s strong break of 0.8332 support confirms larger down trend resumption. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 200% projection of 0.9196 to 0.8757 from 0.8854 at 0.7976. On the upside, above 0.8256 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.
In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8332 (2023 low) confirms resumption of long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9196 at 0.8075. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.7382.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the down trend. But in either case, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.
