USD/CHF recovered to 0.8063 last week but failed to sustain above 0.8054 support turned resistance and retreat. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7946 support will argue that correction from 0.7871 has completed, and bring retest of this low. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8054/63 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8145).
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the down trend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9200 resistance holds. Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
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