USD/CHF’s rally from 0.7603 extended higher last week. The strong break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.7817) suggests that it’s already corrective whole down trend from 0.9200. Initial bias is on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7746 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Rebound from there is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. However, decisive break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.8100) will suggest that it’s probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On the other hand, rejection by the 55 W EMA will setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
 suggests that it's already corrective whole down trend from 0.9200. Initial bias is on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7746 support holds, in case of retreat.){kind=link}