Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9486; (P) 0.9518; (R1) 0.9543; More…
With a temporary top in place at 0.9550, intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first. Another rise expected as long as 0.9423 holds. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 0.9626 fibonacci level. to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.9423 will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9186. And intraday bias would then be turned back to the downside for 0.9356 support and below. Nonetheless, sustained break of 0.9626 will carry larger bullish implications.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.
